Only 6% of developers believe hitting a target of delivering 200,000 new homes every year is achievable, despite many expecting an upswing in construction activity, according to an industry poll.
The Building Momentum report from property consultancy Knight Frank, shows that the majority of builders expect new home starts to increase by at least 10% over the coming year, with almost half predicting rises of up to 25%.
However, most believe this will not be enough to plug the housing gap the country faces. Around one in three builders (30%) said that 180,000 new homes a year would be the maximum that could be feasibly delivered on a regular basis.
Three-quarters of respondents said that the extension of the Government’s Help to Buy scheme will boost development between now and 2020. Another 40% believe it will increase the size of schemes.
Grainne Gilmore, head of UK research at Knight Frank, said: “There is no doubt that developers have stepped up activity since the zenith of the financial crisis – official data shows completions in England rose 4.5% over the last year – but this still leaves development some way off the levels needed to meet demand across the UK.
“Consistency of housing policy is fundamental to boosting supply as well as expanding access to public sector land. It is likely that the confidence engendered by the Government intervening in the housing market – via the Help to Buy scheme – has had a bigger effect on prices than the scheme itself.
“Next year’s general election throws up some uncertainty about Help to Buy. Labour have not commented on their intentions around the equity loan, although they too have criticised the mortgage guarantee. Also, finding a suitable unwinding mechanism for the equity loan will be paramount in the coming years if a ‘cliff edge’ market distortion is to be avoided in six years’ time.”
Last year, a study by the Association of Consulting Engineers forecast that the UK will need a ‘missing city’ of 886,000 new homes by 2021 to meet demand.